Waiting for the wash out
The current selloff is already 42 days old — 8 days longer than 2025's worst drawdown — yet has produced barely half the % decline
History in Both Directions
The NYSE recorded its heaviest down volume ever on Monday, followed by its heaviest up volume ever on Tuesday — two historic extremes
Strait Jacket
$100 Oil on the Clock
WTI crude has surged 35%+ since the Iran war began — the oil scenario matrix now has three lanes: resolution, standoff, and
Corporate insiders in the Industrials sector are buying at the fastest pace in 15 years. What do they know? The 20-week insider accumulation indicator for XLI |
Panic without movement
S&P 500 implied vol (VIX at 27) needs 2% daily moves to justify — but 10-day realized vol is floating around 10–11. The spread between
Strait to Hell
Oil Calls Gone Wild
WTI implied volatility surged to the highest since 2020, and second-month call skews are the most bullish in data going back to
The defensive rotation may have missed a sector. Staples are up 10% this year as investors reach for safety. Healthcare — equally non-cyclical, equally essential |
The Loan Ranger
Blue Owl Down
Alternative asset managers are getting destroyed: Blue Owl -52%, Ares -28%, Blackstone -22%, Apollo -19% over the past year. Only
$100 Oil and the Hormuz Chokepoint
Markets Are a 1-Variable Story
Intraday oil-equity correlation hit –76% — the market is now completely driven by crude.
Source
The Oil Shock That Isn't (Yet)
Hormuz Traffic: Basically Zero
Despite headlines suggesting oil is still flowing, actual Strait of Hormuz traffic data shows
How expensive is US tech right now? The Nasdaq 100 trades at 33x earnings — near its 92nd percentile of the last decade. The broad Chinese market? Sitting near |
